2024 Predictions for New York City Luxury Real Estate

The dust has settled on the turbulent waves of 2023, and 2024 emerges with a distinct undercurrent – optimism. Consumer confidence is rising, whispers of rate cuts echo through the market, and a sense of cautious optimism prevails. This shift sets the stage for a potentially transformative year in New York City's luxury real estate landscape, one ripe with opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

As we navigate the year ahead, here are some key trends to keep your eyes on:

Interest Rate Cuts: Fueling the Fire

The market anticipates upwards of three interest rate cuts throughout 2024, a potential game-changer for buyer sentiment. Lower mortgage rates could reignite activity, creating a more favorable environment for those looking to make their move. This renewed optimism, coupled with easing financial constraints, could lead to a surge in buyer interest, particularly in the higher price brackets. The prospect of reduced borrowing costs is expected to significantly influence the decision-making process for both first-time homebuyers and seasoned investors.

Renter Relief: A Glimmer of Hope

For renters, 2024 may bring a welcome respite from the record highs of 2023. With a projected increase in listings, particularly in apartments under $4,000, rents are expected to stabilize, potentially even dip slightly. This shift in the rental landscape could empower renters with greater negotiating power and provide them with better bargaining opportunities. Additionally, the traditional seasonality of the rental market is likely to hold true, offering prime deals for those willing to brave the winter months.

Inventory Easing: A Gradual Shift

While inventory challenges may linger in specific price points, particularly at the ultra-luxury end, a gradual improvement is anticipated in 2024. Lower interest rates could entice more sellers to list their properties, confident in their ability to move onto their next home without the burden of high mortgage payments. However, it's important to remember that a significant portion of homeowners still enjoy historically low rates, making a mass influx of listings unlikely. Still, a modest increase in inventory is expected, providing buyers with a wider selection and potentially more negotiating leverage.

Price Right to Sell: The Golden Rule

In this evolving market, accurate pricing will be paramount. Properties priced competitively, or even slightly under market value, are likely to attract a flurry of buyers and potentially spark bidding wars. Conversely, overpriced listings may languish on the market, requiring iterative price reductions to attract interest. Sellers who collaborate with experienced real estate professionals to determine the optimal pricing strategy will be well-positioned to navigate this dynamic market and achieve their desired outcome.

2024 promises to be a year of adaptation and opportunity in NYC's luxury real estate market. By staying informed of these key trends, both buyers and sellers can make informed decisions, optimize their strategies, and navigate the turn of the tide with confidence. Whether you're looking to capitalize on the potential of lower rates, find your dream home in a more balanced market, or negotiate a favorable deal as a renter, the year ahead holds exciting possibilities, and The Victoria Shtainer Team is here to be your trusted NYC Real Estate Experts.

We pride ourselves on being at the forefront of this dynamic and competitive industry, offering our clients an unmatched level of service, market knowledge, and access to exclusive listings. Whether you're buying, selling, or investing in luxury real estate, partnering with our team means gaining a strategic advantage that will elevate your experience and ensure a seamless transaction. Trust in our expertise and dedication to exceed your expectations, and let us guide you through the unparalleled world of Manhattan luxury real estate.

Mortgage Rates 2022: How High are Mortgage Rates? [INFOGRAPHIC]

The housing market in 2022 has certainly been characterized by higher mortgage rates as the Fed continues to increase its benchmark Federal Funds rate in an effort to combat inflation. With the Fed making its third 75 basis-point increase at its recent September policy meeting, what does that mean for mortgage rates?

It is important to note that the Fed does not control or set mortgage rates, however, it greatly influences them via monetary policy. Mortgage Rates typically tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield, so when yields rise, mortgage rates tend to go up as well.

 Are Mortgage Rates High Today?

While mortgage rates are currently the highest they have been since approximately 2008, the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgage according to Freddie Mac’s historical data shows that rates have been much higher than they currently are as well. Rates were in excess of 10% for most of the 1980s.

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 Today’s Average 30-year Fixed Rate: 6.43%

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via bankrate

While nobody wants to pay higher rates as it can erode home purchasing power, it is not all bad news. Interest Rates are still relatively low compared to historical standards. There are always benefits to homeownership and the predictability in monthly costs that a fixed-rate mortgage provides compared to renting.

Additionally, higher rates have impacted demanded which means there is less competition at certain price points and property types compared to the height of the busy 2021 market. This means that serious Buyers can still find opportunity and value in the market as the regain some of their negotiating power.

Key Trends to Watch in NYC Real Estate During the Second Half of 2022

The NYC Luxury Real Estate Market enters the second half of the year after a strong first half of 2022

We are officially halfway through 2022! The NYC market experienced additional records during the first half of 2022. As we enter the back half, market dynamics have begun to shift. While markets grapple with record high inflation and rising interest rates, signed contract activity has slowed and we have also seen an uptick in inventory. In the sales market, leverage is beginning to shift toward Buyers while the Rental market continues to remain highly competitive and hot.

The New York market has had a stellar past few years, but we have not seen the lofty price appreciation levels of 20%+ that some markets around the country experienced. Coming out of Covid, we saw elevated activity metrics, given the low amount of transactions that occurred throughout most of 2020. Additionally, inventory shortages are not new to the New York market.

 Heading into the back half, the shift in pace and market dynamics can likely be viewed as a return to normal from the frenzied pace observed throughout 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Mixed economic signals have deterred some luxury buyers, but there are many that are still motivated by a deal. It is important to remember that most transactions in the Manhattan luxury market are cash transactions, so a softening of the market surfaces opportunities for these buyers.

Buyers flocked to luxury properties during the first half of 2022. Pricing will be key as we enter the back half.

 Key Trends to Watch in the Second Half of 2022:

• Consumer Sentiment: likely to remain uncertain until we see positive economic data as well as a turnaround in equity markets

• Price Sensitivity: record high inflation that has raised prices across nearly every sector is weighing on consumer psychology…Buyers are motivated by a deal so accurate pricing will be key

• Construction Costs: we do not anticipate that construction costs will drastically drop in the near future, so the opportunity cost of waiting is still something Buyers need to assess.

• Rental Prices: rents rise in both economic booms and recessions so while a slight softening of activity in the white hot NYC rental market is reasonable, we do not expect prices to see a sharp decline.

 In times like these, it is very important to partner with the right real estate professional that truly understands the local market - in New York, that can be as local as down to a specific building! Media headlines can often be misleading and inaccurate in the narrative they are telling - a professional is your best asset heading into the second half of the year!

6 Ways to Prepare for a Competitive Home-Buying Season in NYC

In general, the home buying market in New York City can be highly competitive. This is due to the high demand and low supply of properties. And when it comes to luxury real estate, things are no different. Moreover, high-end homes are unique, so they are highly sought after, just like any rare item. It's also important to note that, according to the experts, 2022 will see a rise in both real estate prices and investments. So, here are six ways to prepare for a competitive home-buying season in NYC.

Check your finances

As we all know, buying a home is never cheap. It is particularly so when you're looking for luxury real estate in New York City. Therefore, before you start visiting open houses, you must determine your budget limit.

• Analyze your finances carefully to see what you can afford and how much you’re willing to invest. Take into consideration your savings, income, and expenses.

• It would be best if you also took into account potential additional costs. For example, you might be keen on old architecture, but you have to consider the costs of renovation.

• If you're not ready to invest so much money at once, you can consider mortgages. And in this case, it’s essential to get a pre-approval. This way, you’ll know exactly how much money you can get.

• It's also advisable to look at some of the prices on the luxury real estate market. This way, you’ll know what to expect.

To prepare for a competitive home-buying season in NYC, you first must determine your budget limit.

Prepare for a competitive home-buying season in NYC by hiring the best Agent to Represent You

If you're not a professional realtor, you'll need help tackling the competitive home-buying market in NYC. Real estate professionals can offer you advice and help you find your dream home. Due to their experience and access, an agent can filter the market for your preferences and set up showings for you.

Moreover, it’s good to know that luxury properties are not always publicly put up for sale. And you only hear about some of them through word of mouth. Therefore, having a well-connected team of real estate professionals is essential. So, choose wisely if you don’t want to miss out on your dream home.

While researching professionals, it's also good to look at moving companies. Buying a home might take some time, but it's good to be ready. The professionals at Roadway Moving advise that if you leave it for the last moment, you won’t be able to find the best services and offers. So, do some market research for this as well.

Put together a team of real estate professionals to help in this process.

Determine what you want

Once you've determined your budget and found the right team of professionals, you have to figure out what you want. And don't just say a mansion or a penthouse. You have to be specific. Otherwise, not even the best team of realtors will be able to find the right home for you.

What’s important here is to understand what luxury real estate means for you. Is it the size of the house or the location? The high-quality materials that were used to build it? Or is it the specific amenities? Your definition of a high-end property can even combine all of these aspects. But in any case, you have to put it all down on paper and sleep on it. Don't make rash decisions. After all, this is a significant investment, so it has to be a good fit.

Choose the right location

Before you start your house hunt, it’s good to narrow down the location. Each of the five boroughs of NYC indeed has its unique features. Nevertheless, you have to find the perfect place for you. To do this, you should first explore on your own. Visit each borough to get an idea about the landscape, the community, the social life, the schools, etc. Afterward, consult with your team of real estate professionals. Their experience and inside knowledge can help you make an informed decision.

To prepare for a competitive home-buying season in NYC, you should narrow down the location.

Learn to be patient

Buying a home is a considerable investment, particularly if you're buying luxury real estate. Therefore, you should avoid making any rash decisions. Take your time to analyze your options. If you don’t find the right fit as soon as expected, don’t despair. These things take time. And don't get discouraged if someone else beats you to it. It's essential to be sure before placing an offer.

However, it’s also good not to be too picky and wait too long. Yes, the home you’re buying should satisfy all your needs, but there’s no such thing as a perfect house. So, you should be willing to make some small compromises. Otherwise, you might never find what you’re looking for.

 Learn to negotiate

Just because you're buying luxury real estate doesn't mean you shouldn't get a fair price. Therefore, don't skip the negotiation once you find a home you like. This is where your Real Estate Broker will be a huge asset to you as they are a negotiating expert and know the market prices well. They can advise you on what to submit for the strongest offer to win the property. It's also good to know how much competition you have. If the property is highly sought after, you might not have any other option than to place a higher offer.

Final thoughts

Because of the high demand and low supply, the housing market in New York City can be very competitive. Besides, finding the right home is never easy. So, what can you do to prepare for a competitive home-buying season in NYC? Determine your budget, seek professional help, identify what you want, and narrow down the location. Being specific is key. It's also essential to take your time and not make rash decisions. And in the end, make sure you get a fair price.

New York Renters Faced with Steep Lease Renewals

Data shows rents in New York have reached or surpassed pre-pandemic pricing

Rents across New York City have been on a tear, rising passed pandemic lows in some neighborhoods of the city. Rents plunged at the start of the pandemic as uncertainty swept the city and many renters fled to other homes outside the city or relocated. Now, however, rents are surging.

Many renters that entered into leases during lows of 2021 are approaching the end of their leases and are being caught by surprise with the steep renewal rates that are being proposed by landlords.

During the pandemic, Renters that new that would be staying put in the city began apartment shopping, finding spaces that they never thought were possible for themselves. Perhaps that was simply being able to afford to live alone or upgrading to a luxury building with full amenities in a prime location. When vacancy rates were high, landlords were desperate to secure tenants and offering extensive concessions.

The need for rock bottom prices and concessions came to an end as demand increased in New York. Rents in New York rose 33% between January 2021 and January 2022, nearly double the national average according to a study cited by The New York Times.

Rents in city’s most coveted neighborhoods experienced even larger swings, with some areas such as the Upper West Side and Williamsburg now seeing rents some 40% higher and even higher than before the pandemic.

Rents in some neighborhoods of Manhattan such as the Upper West Side have increased some 40%, more than double the national average

With pandemic deals expiring, rents are rising by hundreds of dollars a month. While many Renters who locked in COVID deals on their leases knew the deal was not going to last, many did not expect the extent to which rates would increase after the initial lease period.

The increase in rent, while a sign of the market stabilizing and the city recovering, is a frustrating situation for renters nonetheless.

In data cited by Bloomberg, it notes that tenants paid a median rent of $3,630 in February 2022, the highest for any month in more than a decade

What Should Renters Do?

Renters facing steep increases on lease renewals need to really asses the increased cost. While large rent increases are a hard pill for anyone to swallow, sometimes all the factors of moving can still be more than staying put.

Additionally, inventory is tight so finding a new option could also be challenging. Renters will need to re-adjust their expectations of what they can afford at their price range in today’s market.

Of course, if the proposed renewal price is simply out of your price range, begin your search for a new space as soon as possible. Partnering with a Broker that knows the city and can navigate the complex Rental Market will be a huge asset. Who you work with matters, so ensure you are working with an Agent that is a good fit. Negotiating with Landlords can be challenging so having a skilled negotiator on your side to get you the best deal is a must.

5 Reasons Why This is Not a Housing Bubble

Home prices have experienced significant year-over-year price appreciation, particularly since the lows of the pandemic. In fact, The National Association of Realtors reported that two-thirds of Metro areas reached double-digit appreciation in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Strong price appreciation and stories of homes selling in hours have many consumers worried a housing bubble is beginning to form. We have seen competition increase first-hand in our market, and know that you do not want to be a homebuyer without a Broker in today’s market.

Today’s market is, however, vastly different than the housing market of 15 years ago that lead to the crash of 2007. Here are 5 key reasons why today’s market is not like the previous one.

Stricter Lending Standards:

Lenders are much stricter with loan originations today than compared to 2006/2007. Lenders need to follow strict guidelines in order to qualify a borrow.

That means today’s buyers are highly qualified. Additionally, many lenders were packing up risky loans that masked the true cost of monthly payments or included large balloon payments.

We do not see that occurring today. Riskier products such as Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) account for only 5% of mortgages today compared to nearly 35% at the peak of 2006.

Foreclosures at Record Lows:

Extremely large numbers of homeowners facing foreclosure was the hallmark of the 2007 crash. Today, we are seeing the opposite with foreclosures at record lows. Homeowners have experienced large equity gains in recent years and many are sitting at a large equity surplus as a result. Additionally, many are not tapping into this equity and pulling it out of their homes like they were a decade ago.

In their Homeowner Equity Report, CoreLogic CEO Frank Martell stated:

“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.”

According to the report, only 3% of mortgaged properties were in a negative equity position at the end of Q3 2021, a decrease of 28.9% from the year prior.

Homeowners are equity rich today, with many have a large equity surplus on their property

There is a Supply Shortage, Not Surplus:

Basic market fundamentals say that an excess of supply depresses prices will a shortage of supply will drive prices up. In many areas around the country, we are experiencing a shortage a property which is leading to continued price appreciation.

The inventory picture today is much different than before. There is a healthy demand for homeownership, which is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, coupled with a shortage of supply that is drive appreciation.

Strong Job Market:

Coming out of the pandemic, the United States economy is much stronger than it was over a decade ago. We are currently in one of the strongest labor markets – any job seeker knows that the time to find a new gig is now.

Employers are looking to hire workers, and they are paying them. Wages have also been rising – the buying power of many households is significantly higher today compared to 2006.

A strong job market with rising wages is the backdrop for consumers to have the ability to pay for home purchases they finance.

Today’s job market is strong with Employers looking to hire workers. Wages are also on the rise

Interest Rates are Rising, but Still Low:

Yes, interest rates are on the rise and Mortgage Rates have gone up recently as a result. Even with the recent upward move in rates, 30-year mortgages are around 4%. In 2006 Mortgage Rates were over 6%.

By that mark, rates are still low making homes more affordable for Buyers today compared to over a decade ago. Coupled with rising wages referenced above, purchasing power is stronger today.

Additionally, one benefit of rising rates is that they function as a check on demand. For those concerned about a bubble, this is a positive as demand translates to pricing influence as mentioned previously. Rising Rates may help to keep prices from running away. On the flip side, it is worth noting that rates would have to rising by a very large amount to halt Buyer demand and cause prices to collapse.

How Millennials are Changing the Luxury Real Estate Market

Some people associate Millennials with incompetency and inertia, imagining that most people born between 1985-1996 are not business-savvy enough to impact the economy significantly. The reality is, the stigma that culture placed around Millennials could not be further from the truth, and Millennials have become one of the most influential and important demographic segments within the housing market.

Millennials are far from being superficial, naive real estate buyers hunting for the most Instagrammable Manhattan view out there. In actuality, the Millennials' purchasing habits and real estate preferences greatly impact the industry, and have been becoming more and more a key influence is more of this generation looks to become homeowners. Millennials are changing the luxury real estate market as we speak.

Naturally, if you want to sell or buy a luxury property, you want to know which home features people pay extra for. It is always better to introduce home updates that will appeal to serious buyers if you decide to move out. And Millennials have positioned themselves as buyers who are willing to invest in real estate. So much so they are de facto dictating the luxury real estate market trends. In fact, 38% of home buyers belong to this demographic group.

Millennials prefer their starter home to be a luxury property

The dominant rhetoric in recent years has labelled Millennials as hesitant to leave their parent’s homes. However, it is not the case that Millennials do not want or cannot afford their own homes. The latter has especially been bolstered by COVID as many Millennials were able to temporarily live with their parents, saving significant money for down payments. Because of the impact of witnessing the Great Financial Crisis, Millennials have taken, perhaps, a more cautious approach to buying, waiting longer to invest in their first property. This demographic group has strong buying power thanks to high incomes from salaries in industries such as Tech and Finance, particularly in the large, coastal metro areas around the country.

As a result, Millennials do not shy away from having their first purchase be a luxury home. This tendency makes them a true force of nature in the world of luxury real estate. The slight delay of their dominance in real estate has enabled them to invest in properties or rent luxury homes in some of the best areas of metropolises, such as New York. Of course, some NYC neighbourhoods are more welcoming to the Millennial's lifestyles and living preferences.

Millennials’ backgrounds and attitudes are changing the luxury real estate market

It is not just the choice of neighborhoods that affects the change in the luxury real estate market. As a generation, Millennials tend to be better educated, have better earnings, and inherit more than people in the past. All of this makes for a demographic group that has strong buyer power, and is investing its assets into luxury homes that are more functional and more energy-efficient.

Furthermore, Millennials grew up amid the technological revolution that has changed how the world works. As a result, the technical savviness of Millennials also dictates how luxury homes will be furnished, making the concept of smart homes synonymous with luxury homes.

Today, smart home features are a must in luxury homes.

Millennials increasingly work from their homes

The Covid-19 pandemic has influenced luxury real estate trends and predictions in upscale locations such as New York and the way most Millennials do business. So, a recent switch to remote working allows many Millennials to work from their home office. And what's better than basing your home office in a luxury home that is your “vision board” in real life - in a fantastic location at that.

Millennial homebuyers prefer to buy luxury homes with home offices.

Given this trend, luxury homes in sunnier, suburban, and remote locations surrounded by nature and other stimulating perks are in demand. In addition, Millennials are moving to luxury estates in more affordable cities as they no longer have to commute to work. However, it is not just luxury real estate that is catching up to these changes. According to  Tik Tok Moving and Storage, moving companies are also enhancing their range of offers and services, thus enabling their clients to prepare and execute a long-distance move in the shortest amount of time possible. 

Sustainability is becoming the norm in the world of luxury real estate

Another significant milestone in the world of luxury homes has to be the recent turn to sustainable and environmentally-friendly home features. Sustainable living has finally become a priority for eco-conscious homebuyers who want to reduce their carbon footprint by turning to green energy. And it is no coincidence this is happening right now. As they become older, people born in the Millennial generation tend to be more aware, outspoken, and fervent regarding these noble agendas.

Hence, experts in the luxury real estate market respond to these consumer preferences. As a result, energy-efficient HVAC systems, solar panels, green roofs, Tesla chargers, and other such sustainable home features are becoming a necessity rather than an exception in the world of luxury real estate. Since such technological advances in luxury real estate have the potential to set the bar for other real estate markets, soon enough, we are likely to see similar developments sweeping the industry.

Millennials are changing the luxury real estate market for the better

In sum, Millennials are changing the luxury real estate market mainly toward a more self-conscious, environmentally friendly, and data driven industry. Given the strong purchasing power and cultural impact of this demographic, it is likely that they will continue to shape market trends and dynamics in the near future.

2022 Predictions for New York City Luxury Real Estate Market

2021 was a record-breaking year for the New York City luxury real estate market. In fact, Manhattan had an impressive $30 Billion on sales last year. With each New Year we receive the golden question of “what’s in store for the year ahead?”. While we do not have a crystal ball, we do have some key themes based on last year’s activity that help inform how the landscape of the 2022 NYC Luxury Market may shape up. In short, while there may be some slowdown relative to 2021, we do not see any signs of the pandemic recovery stopping in 2022.

Heading into 2022, we expect continued strength across the housing market. The start to the new year has already been a strong one for Manhattan luxury, marking the best start to a year since 2006. The week between Christmas and New Year saw 22 contracts signed on properties priced $4M and up.

We expect the following themes to rise to the top: Rising Prices, Rising Rates, Rising Investment in New York.

Rising Prices:

Prices have already begun to recover in the New York market, particularly in the luxury sector. Strong demand and shrinking supply has been placing upward pressure on pricing. This is likely to continue as inventory shortages may increase in certain pockets of the market, and we expect to demand to remain persistent. Price appreciation may not be as rapid as the past year, but we expect an upward trajectory. Additionally, supply disruptions that have increased input and replacement costs are contributing to rising prices.

Turn-Key:

Stemming off of the last point above, whether looking to buy or looking for a New York City luxury apartment for rent we expect a strong preference to remain for turn-key or renovated units. Challenges with labor costs as well as sources furniture, etc. has made a renovation a much larger and time consuming project that many individuals no longer want to do.

Rising Rates:

The Fed has given a confident signal that multiple interest rates are nearly certain this year. The most recent guidance from the Fed signaled 3 rates for 2022. Buyers have been enjoying historically low interest rates for years, so the initial rate hikes may cause an upfront “shock” to the market. Savvy Buyers that have been contemplating purchasing are moving to lock in rates and make the purchase before rates rise. 

Rising Investment in New York:

The city is incredibly excited to welcome a new Mayor and administration that has promised to shift the narrative of the city toward one of economic recovery and pro-business. A new Mayor could peak investors that were avoiding de Blasio’s New York. With the return of foreign buyers to New York City luxury real estate, rising inflation, and a strong rental market, we see a favorable environment for investors to consider New York for their investment.

4 Reasons Why Today is Not a Housing Bubble Like 2006

Headlines about the rapid pace of home price appreciation and stories of bidding wars on every property have many worried that a housing bubble could be brewing. Are we heading for the 2006 housing crash all over again? No!

Today’s market looks quite different than 2006 thanks to stricter lending rules and the underlying fundamentals that are driving pricing.

1. Supply and Demand

There has been a shift in Supply and Demand dynamics that contributed to home price increases. Millennials and younger generations are reaching the point of wanting to buy versus rent, and this was only accelerated by aspects of the pandemic such as spending more time at home and having the ability to save more money by being home. Increased desire for homeownership from these groups coupled with older buyers looking to trade up has resulted in a surge in demand.

Additionally, homebuilders are much more prudent about the volume of homes they are bringing to market today as a result of the last housing cycle. Most of the nation is experiencing a supply shortage, especially at lower price levels.

These 2 dynamics created a mismatch in supply and demand that accelerated home price appreciation. 2006 was characterized by overbuilding and Sellers rushing to list their homes - we are not seeing that today.

2. Interest Rates are Low

Interest rates are the lowest they have ever been. During the height of COVID, we saw mortgage rates continue to set record lows. These ultra-low rates have helped fuel price increases as Buyers can afford more house when rates are lower as a result of lower monthly mortgage payments.

There are concerns over rising interest rates. Yes, we expect rates to rise, but they are still going to be low compared to decades of the past. The Fed would have to raise rates very drastically to really halt all the demand.

Even when we think of rising rates, it is important to remember there is a duality at play. To a certain level, increasing home prices as a result of low interest rates and a less expensive purchase price at a higher interest rate make a Buyer indifferent.

Prudent Buyers understand that the longer they wait, the more price appreciation they will miss out on as well as face the risk of financing at a higher rate.

3. Demand will Persist

There continues to be incredibly large amount of demand because of a supply shortage. In fact, data from a report released by the National Associations of Realtors suggests that there is a shortage of nearly 5.5-6 million homes which equates to roughly $2 trillion waiting to be spent when using a national median selling price of $375,000.

4. Speculative Lending is not Present

The market is not driven by speculative lending as it was in 2006. In fact, it is quite the opposite. Lenders now need to follow strict guidelines that were put in place as a result of the Great Recession, and today’s borrowers are creditworthy. Additionally, more risky products such as adjustable rate mortgages represent just 5% of total purchase and refinance loans compared to nearly 35% at the peak of 2006.

2021 Outlook: What to Expect for the New York City Real Estate Market

With the arrival of 2021 comes new predictions for the year ahead. It goes without saying, New York City faced a very tough 2020 as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic. The real estate market came to a near halt of in-person showings and activity was ceased from March-late June. 

While many Media Outlets wrote of the mass exodus to the Suburbs and a bleak state of the Luxury Market in New York, the market actually turned a corner once in-person activity resumed in late June. In fact, some weeks of 2020 had higher contract activity in luxury properties than 2019. 

People will always need a place to call home, and we saw the power of that throughout much of 2020.

We are all entering 2021 with  guarded, yet hopeful optimism that we will turn a corner towards normalcy. We expect the market to continue its Pandemic recovery, barring any unforeseen circumstances of a large resurgence of cases, etc. The arrival of the vaccine which is expected to become more widely available as we progress into 2021 should help curb another lockdown.

What Do We Expect for 2021? We largely expect persistent demand from Buyers as the narrative shifts away from “New York is Gone” to a narrative of opportunity and recovery. We’ve already seen that the story the Media tried to paint of NYC in a post-pandemic world was not the reality. Some folks that originally left the city have already returned or have plans to return in the near future. New Yorkers and those in the surrounding areas are betting on New York Real estate and taking advantage of discounts in a big way.

Fight of the Boroughs:

We anticipate the battle between top Borough in the city to remain heated in 2021. As a result of the Pandemic features like  more space,  outdoor space, and  in-unit laundry became priorities. All of these features could be found in Brooklyn which help contribute to the borough’s post pandemic spike in activity, however, reduce pricing has made Manhattan more affordable to more people…which will win?

Buyers Will Continue their Return:

Buyers have been entering the market since the lockdown was lifted. We saw a strong uptick in market activity in June 2020 when in-person showings resumed. The year finished on a strong note, and we expect Buyers that  are serious and  know they are staying in  New York  City to take advantage. There are many factors that are driving Buyers including low interest  rates  as well as increased wealth. Many New Yorkers of means actually saw an increase in wealth during 2020 thanks to a sharp rise in Tech Stocks as well as the ability to retain employment remotely.

Low Rates Here to Stay:

We expect Mortgage Rates to stay low in 2021. Will they may inch up slightly throughout the course of 2021 (we saw numerous record lows set in 2020!), rates will remain historically at low levels. Low Rates have drastically been increasing purchasing power of both new Buyers and Homeowners looking to roll their equity into a larger home.

Deals on New Development:

The Manhattan  Luxury Condo market has been overburdened with Supply for the past few years. While some Developers have been rolling out discounts and incentives in 2019/2020, we expect discounts on new inventory to uptick. Developers are at the mercy of project financing - they need to get units sold and move onto the next project so they can pay their lenders. This means great opportunities for Buyers of New Development.

Shifting Preferences:

What ranks as important to Buyers will likely shift as Consumers continue  to  evolve their needs and wants coming out of the pandemic. We know that the multi-functional homes are a must and people now prefer outdoor space to the latest appliances, but we expect that these preferences will continue to be refined heading into  2021. In New York, there is likely to be a resurgence with  Boutique buildings with  minimal amounts of units compared to  large buildings with hundreds of homes.